President Obama announced that at the end of the year he would have all of the American troops withdrawn from Iraq. Now senior American and Iraqi officials are expressing growing concern that Al Qaeda may increase the violence in Iraq once American troops leave. The officials fear that Al Qaeda members will spark another civil war in Iraq. Read more after the jump.

Julie1205

As the United States prepares to withdraw its troops from Iraq by year’s end, senior American and Iraqi officials are expressing growing concern that Al Qaeda’s offshoot here, which just a few years ago waged a debilitating insurgency that plunged the country into a civil war, is poised for a deadly resurgence.

Qaeda allies in North Africa, Somalia and Yemen are seeking to assert more influence after the death of Osama bin Laden and the diminished role of Al Qaeda’s remaining top leadership in Pakistan. For its part, Al Qaeda in Iraq is striving to rebound from major defeats inflicted by Iraqi tribal groups and American troops in 2007, as well as the deaths of its two leaders in 2010.

Although the organization is certainly weaker than it was at its peak five years ago and is unlikely to regain its prior strength, American and Iraqi analysts said the Qaeda franchise is shifting its tactics and strategies — like attacking Iraqi security forces in small squads — to exploit gaps left by the departing American troops and to try to reignite sectarian violence in the country.

The group, which is also known as Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia, has shown surprising resilience even as its traditional supply lines of foreign fighters through Syria have been disrupted by the turmoil in that country, American intelligence officials say. It conducts a little more than 30 attacks a week, carries out a large-scale strike every four to six weeks, and has expanded its efforts to recruit Iraqis, leading to a significant increase in the number of Iraqi-born suicide bombers.

“I cringe whenever anybody makes a pronouncement that Al Qaeda is on its last legs,” said Maj. Gen. Jeffrey Buchanan, the American military’s top spokesman in Iraq. “I think one day we are going to look around and say it’s been a long time since we have heard from Al Qaeda, and maybe then we can say it is on its last legs.”

The Qaeda affiliate’s nascent resurgence has helped fuel a debate between some Pentagon officials on one side, who are seeking a way to permit small numbers of American military trainers and Special Operations forces to operate in Iraq, and some White House officials on the other, who are eager to close the final chapter on a divisive eight-year war that cost the lives of more than 4,400 troops.

Iraqi analysts express fears that ties between Al Qaeda and members of the former ruling Baath Party may be re-forming. “The government is afraid from an alliance between Qaeda and Baath precisely in this time, after the American withdrawal from Iraq,” said Ehssan al-Shemari, a political science professor at Baghdad University. “The security issue is the biggest challenge for the government in the next stage.”

According to General Buchanan, there are 800 to 1,000 people in Al Qaeda’s Iraq network, “from terrorists involved in operations to media to finance to fighters.” A document released by the military in July 2010 said Al Qaeda had about 200 “hard core” fighters in Iraq. The weak Iraqi economy is providing a large pool of young and vulnerable recruits, analysts say.

A Defense Department official familiar with the Qaeda affiliate said that the group’s leaders and foot soldiers are Sunni Arabs from central, western and northern Iraq. While some may have been affiliated with the Baath Party in Saddam Hussein’s government, analysts say, they were not involved at high levels of the government or military. Foreigners make up only a small percentage of the organization’s membership base.

Over the summer, the Qaeda branch in Iraq tried to ignite sectarian bloodletting with a series of coordinated attacks across the country and the execution of 22 Shiite pilgrims from the city of Karbala who were traveling through Anbar Province, an area once controlled by Al Qaeda.

In the days after the pilgrims were killed, security forces for the local government in Karbala conducted raids in Anbar, arrested several people and took them back to Karbala. The raids infuriated local leaders in Anbar, who threatened to respond with violence. But the government of Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki frantically intervened. The acting defense secretary traveled to Anbar to meet with local leaders, and ultimately one of the local leaders threatened a lawsuit, a once unthinkable way of resolving a dispute in Iraq.
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